How To Bet On Football Transfers – Betting Guide

How To Place Football Transfer Bets

Placing a football transfer wager using betting sites is easy.

• Compare bookmakers until you find the one most suited to you
• Create an account by filling out their registration form
• In the sports section, select football, and then football transfer
• Browse through the variety of markets and odds until you find a good wager
• Choose your stake and create the bet!

Football transfer betting is a highly anticipated market because of all the uproar before a transfer is even solidified. Below are the most expensive in football history:

FOOTBALL TRANSFER	DEAL VALUE
Neymar Jr. from Barcelona to PSG in 2017	€222 million
Kylian Mbappe from Monaco to PSG in 2018	€180 million
Philippe Coutinho from Liverpool to Barcelona in 2018	€145 million
João Félix from Benfica to Atlético Madrid in 2019	€126 million

Available Football Transfer Markets

In football transfer betting there are a huge range of markets to explore, because of the interesting nature of the bet.

Players Next Permanent Club

A players next permanent club is undoubtedly the most highly anticipated market in football transfer betting. To grasp it, there is a key difference to understand:

• A loan transfer is where a football player is temporarily permitted to play for a different club. Once this time period is up, they go back to their original club, which still owns them the entire time. Often, they are suggested so that you can get around the transfer window, and sometimes when they end the player is offered a permanent transfer contract.
• A permanent transfer is where a terminates their original contract, whether this be when it ends, or dismissal. Subsequently, they are offered a new permanent contract with another team.

When you are betting on a players next permanent club, you successfully win the wager when the player signs the permanent contract. Betting sites have a number of clubs with differing odds to choose from.

Players Club at End Of Window

In football there are two transfer windows: summer and winter. This is the only time when players can be transferred, and they vary depending on the league.

For example, in the Premier League, most recently they are:

• Summer ‘pre-season’ window: Wednesday 14^th June 2023 – Friday 1^st September 2023
• Winter ‘midseason’ window: Monday 1^st January 2024 – Thursday 1^st February 2024

As you can notice, the summer window is much longer than the winter ‘January’ window. Hence, there is more time to research and see how games play out.

In this market, you simply have to predict which club a player will be at when the football transfer window closes. All good betting sites have these key dates on their server, and should keep you informed on any relevant information.

Leave Or Stay

Arguably the simplest market is whether a player will stay with their current club or leave when their time is up. This market is encouraged, especially for new punters, because it is the easiest to research.

When a player is dissatisfied with their team, it quickly becomes common knowledge. Whether this be rifts between players, squabbles with the manager, personal conflicts, or seasonal performance, the world will hear about it.

However, it is worth noting that you should discern between petty rumours and solid evidence. When a piece of information has been brought up continuously, or you can clearly see that a player has been struggling, this is when you can predict they will leave.

Next Manager

An underrated market is the next manager market. This is because everyone focuses on the football players, forgetting that there is just as much transfer with coaches.

If a manager is transforming a club and helping them rank, he will be in high demand. This will cause other clubs to offer lucrative deals, in order for them to also succeed. On the other hand, if a manager is visibly struggling and does not get on well with the players, he may opt to leave too.

Sack Race

Similar to the next manager market, managers can be fired or resign. Usually, this is easy to predict based on a few patterns, such as how the club is performing and the relationship between manager and the players.

Strategies For Betting On Football Transfer

Like we mentioned at the beginning, betting on football transfers is rewarding, albeit difficult to navigate. Below are our top four tips on how to place more thoughtful wagers:

Conduct Thorough Research

No matter which sport or market you are betting on, it is vital to do your research. This is especially true in football transfers, because you can’t rely on previous statistics like most other types of bets. Instead, focus on the following:

• Have a collection of several reliable sources: this could include betting sites, sports news channels, and the club’s social media themselves. Also remember that some journalists can write for undependable outlets, so be sure to back up your information with a credible source too.
• Check recent performances: if you notice a player is being consistently benched, isn’t performing well, or has taken to social media to express his displease, you can reasonably guess they may be looking to join a club elsewhere.
• Club statistics: how a club is ranking plays a huge role in their transfers. Additionally, being aware of their most recent contracts is significant and can help you understand the bigger picture.
• Individual contracts: knowing when a contract is about to end is beneficial, because this is when a player is most likely to transfer.

Watch Relevant Games

It may be seemingly obvious, but watching the game is a strategy in itself. You don’t need to be extra vigilant; simply observing player performance, the line-up, and mood of each player is enough.  

Spot Changes In Betting Odds

Whether you regularly use betting sites or not, it is noticeable that odds fluctuate greatly. The main thing to look out for is when the odds greatly drop or intensify. Although bookmakers don’t know a great deal more than anyone else, they have multiple sources and are trained to react accordingly. Therefore, their odds changing is a telltale sign.

Also, it is worth noting that you should compare betting sites all the time. Even if you are a loyal punter to one bookmaker, it can be profitable to have a look what else is out there, especially for new customers.

Remember The Transfer Windows

Perhaps the most important piece of information regarding football transfer betting is the transfer windows. The summer transfer window and the winter transfer window depend on which league you are betting on. Generally, the summer period is a few months, and the winter period a few weeks.

LEAGUE	SUMMER WINDOW	WINTER WINDOW
Premier League	Wednesday 14th June 2023 – Friday 1st September 2023	Monday 1st January 2024 – Thursday 1st February 2024
La Liga	1 July 2023 – 1 September 2023	Tuesday 2nd January 2024 – Wednesday 31 January 2024
Ligue 1	Saturday 10th June 2023 – Friday 1st September 2023	Monday 1st January 2024 – Wednesday 31st January 2024