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Lay Betting Strategy – A Comprehensive Guide

Never heard of a lay bet? Rings a bell and looking for more information? In simple terms, you can wager on something not happening with a lay bet. For instance, you may wager on a sports team losing a game or a horse not winning a race.

 

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You’ll learn everything you need to know to confidently place a lay bet on the best betting sites in this comprehensive lay betting explained guide.

In this article, we will explore the concept of lay betting, discuss the concept of liability, delve into various strategies for lay betting, explore its application in different sports, and provide answers to frequently asked questions about lay betting strategy.

What is Lay Betting?

With traditional betting, you stake money on an event you believe will occur, such as a football team winning a game or a horse winning a race. If you’re right, you receive your stake back with a profit; if you’re wrong, the bookmaker keeps it.

When you lay bet, you assume the position of the bookmaker and back events that won’t occur.

You may wager against a football team losing, for instance. You will therefore make money if your team loses or the game is a draw. However, you lose if the team succeeds.

On betting exchange websites, lay betting is most common. You won’t be betting against a bookmaker when you put a wager on an event.

Instead, a different bettor who thinks that event will occur will be paired with you.

If you win, they pay your winnings, and if you lose, you pay their profits.

The potential for profit through lay betting is enormous, even though there is a higher level of risk because certain betting exchanges let you set your odds. Keep in mind that your lay bet will incur a commission fee from the bookmaker you are choosing.

Let’s take an extremely easy-to-understand example. In a football match between Team A and Team B, if you lay Team A, you are betting on Team A not winning. If Team B wins or the match ends in a draw, your lay bet is successful. However, if Team A wins, you lose the bet.

Understanding Liability in Lay Betting

What is a liability in lay betting? It’s a crucial concept, and it refers to the amount of money you could potentially lose if your lay bet is unsuccessful.

When placing a lay bet, two digits are frequently displayed.

Your stake, or how much money you are wagering to receive your winnings, is the first number. Your responsibility will be the second number you see. If your bet is wrong, you will have to pay this sum. For example, if you offer odds of 2/1 on a lay bet with a stake of €50, your liability would be €100 (3.0 x €50). This means that if the outcome you bet against occurs, you would have to pay out €100.

You utilise your obligation to pay out the winnings to the back bettor who placed a wager against yours.

It can be difficult to understand how these numbers change, but it’s crucial to keep in mind that your liability is the amount of money you’re willing to risk.

Strategies for Lay Betting

Lay betting is a special kind of betting, and gamblers have created tactics you can apply with this betting to ensure your own success.

Below are some of the top lay betting tactics.

Arbitrage

Arbitrage betting with lay betting involves taking advantage of different odds offered by bookmakers or betting exchanges to ensure a guaranteed profit. Let’s walk through an example using euros and fractional odds to illustrate how this strategy works.

Suppose there is a tennis match between Player A and Player B. You find a bookmaker offering odds of 5/1 for Player A to win, while another bookmaker offers odds of 4/1 for Player B to win. Here’s how you can execute an arbitrage bet with lay betting:

Back Bet: You decide to place a €100 back bet on Player A to win with the bookmaker offering odds of 5/1. If Player A emerges victorious, you will receive a profit of €100 * (5/1) = €500.

Lay Bet: Next, you visit a betting exchange where you can act as the bookmaker. You lay a bet against Player A winning, offering odds of 4/1. To cover potential losses, you set your liability at €125. If Player A doesn’t win, you will secure a profit of €125.

Possible Outcomes:

  • Player A wins: Your back bet is successful here, resulting in a profit of €500. However, you lose your lay bet and incur a liability of €125. Consequently, your net profit will be €500 – €125 = €375.
  • Player B wins: If Player A fails to win the match, you lose your back bet of €100. However, your lay bet wins, earning you a profit of €125. Thus, your net profit will be €125 – €100 = €25.

Arbitrage betting offers guaranteed profit no matter what, you just have to analyse the odds around the bookmakers and be prepared to take advantage of ever-shifting odds.

Curve Betting

Let’s consider a horse race where the odds for each horse may fluctuate leading up to the race. The goal of curve betting is to predict and take advantage of these price changes. Here’s an example:

Initial Assessment: Initially, you assess the odds for each horse. Suppose Horse A has odds of 4/1, and Horse B has odds of 3/1. Based on your analysis, you believe the odds for Horse B are undervalued, and you expect them to shorten before the race begins.

Initial Bet: So, you decide to place a €100 bet on Horse B at the current odds of 3/1. If Horse B wins, you will receive a profit of €300.

Price Movement: As you anticipated, the odds for Horse B start to shorten, and a few hours later, they change to 2/1. At this point, you may consider placing a new bet to take advantage of the lower odds.

Additional Bet: So, with the updated odds of 2/1, you decide to lay a €150 bet against Horse B to reduce your potential losses if Horse B fails to win. If Horse B doesn’t win, you will win €150.

Possible Outcomes:

  • Horse B wins: In this case, your initial bet on Horse B is successful, resulting in a profit of €300. However, you lose your lay bet of €150. Your net profit would be €300 – €150 = €150.
  • Horse B doesn’t win: If Horse B fails to win the race, you lose your initial bet of €100. However, your lay bet wins, earning you €150. Your net loss would be €100 – €150 = -€50. You still lose, but not as much as you staked.

Curve betting involves making predictions about odds movements and adjusting your bets accordingly to exploit favourable price changes. The advantage is that you are guaranteed to make money if the market is monitored correctly, but it’s not easy to gauge how and when the odds market will shorten. With that in mind, it’s risky.

In-Running Lays

This is live lay betting, and you place lay bets on an outcome during an ongoing event, such as a football match or a horse race. This allows you to take advantage of changing circumstances and potentially secure a profit. Let’s discuss an example.

There is a tennis match between Player A and Player B. Prior to the match, Player A is the favourite with fractional odds of 1/2, while Player B has odds of 3/1.

Match Begins: The match starts, and Player A quickly gains an advantage by winning the first set.

Changing Circumstances: Due to Player A’s strong performance, the odds for Player A decrease, while the odds for Player B increase. The new odds for Player A are now 1/5, indicating a higher likelihood of Player A winning, while Player B’s odds change to 5/1.

In-running Lay Bet: Based on the odds, you decide to lay a bet against Player A winning at the updated odds of 1/5. Let’s say you lay €100 against Player A. If Player A fails to win, you will win €100.

Possible Outcomes:

  • Player A wins: If Player A goes on to win the match, your lay bet is unsuccessful, resulting in a loss of €100.
  • Player A doesn’t win: If Player A fails to win the match, your lay bet is successful, and you win €100.

You’ve got to be quick and react to the match, and if you do this correctly there are profits to be made. You’ve got to be really quick though.

That’s a lot to take in. Here’s a simplified table presenting all three strategies.

Strategies for Lay Betting

Strategy NameSimplifiedExample
ArbitrageTaking advantage of different odds from different bookmakers€100 on Player A at 5/1 odds, see Player B is at 4/1 odds and bet €125 on them
CurvePredicting and taking advantage of price changesAn initial selection of 3/1 horse at €100, updated odds of 2/1 and bet €150 against horse
In-RunningLive in-play lay bettingPlayer A is the favourite and starts strong, odds decrease and increase for Player B. Lay bet against Player A

Lay Betting in Various Sports

We’ve already discussed lay betting with various examples from different sports, but here are a few examples of lay betting in many different sports and what you can look for:

Football: You can lay a team to win a match, to qualify for a tournament, or to score a goal. This strategy is especially effective when there is a strong favourite playing against an underdog.

Horse Racing: Lay betting is popular in horse racing, where you can lay a horse to win a race. This approach can be profitable when you identify horses that are overhyped or overestimated by the market, but it can be difficult to estimate the market’s change.

Tennis: You can lay a player to win a match or a tournament. This strategy works well when there is a clear favourite and you believe the odds don’t accurately reflect the chances of an upset.

Below is a table with simplified selections for lay betting across different sports.

Lay Betting in Various Sports

SportSelections
FootballA team to win a match, competition or to score
Horse RacingLay a horse to win a race
TennisLay a player to win a match, or a tournament

Final thoughts on Lay Betting

So, there you have it, an in-depth guide on lay betting, and hopefully the article helped out every type of person, whether you’re a football punter, enjoy betting on horse racing, or someone that likes tennis.

Lay betting provides a unique and potentially profitable alternative to traditional betting. By understanding the concept of lay betting, managing liability effectively, employing strategic approaches, and applying it to various sports, you can enhance your betting experience and increase your chances of success.

Understand that there are both positives and weaknesses to lay betting, but it’s a technique that professionals use to guarantee profit. If it’s done properly, it can be very valuable.

Frequently Asked Questions on Lay Betting Strategy

How do I choose the right odds to offer for a lay bet?

The odds you offer should reflect your assessment of the likelihood of the outcome not happening. Consider the probability of the outcome, the market odds, and the potential liability. It’s important to strike a balance between offering attractive odds and managing your potential losses.

Can I use lay betting in combination with traditional betting?

Yes, many bettors use a combination of lay betting and traditional betting to diversify their strategies and maximise their potential returns. By understanding both approaches, you can choose the most suitable option for each betting opportunity.

Are there any risks involved in lay betting?

Lay betting, like any form of betting, carries risks. While it offers opportunities to profit from outcomes not happening, there is always a chance that the outcome you bet against occurs. It’s important to manage your liability, practice proper bankroll management, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.