Gavin Gone – Do the bookies favour Connolly or Humphreys?

Gavin’s Withdrawal Shakes Up the Race

A 20-year-old housing dispute over a €3,300 rental deposit derailed Jim Gavin’s presidential campaign, forcing the former Dublin GAA manager and Fianna Fáil-backed candidate to withdraw from the race this month — and throwing a presidential election into chaos in the process.
Once viewed as a unifying centrist figure, Gavin’s exit has reshaped the race for Ireland’s presidency, leaving voters with a head-to-head contest between independent TD Catherine Connolly and Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys as the October 24 election approaches.

Currently the bookies have Catherine Connolly as the overwhelming favourite as Bet365 have her at 3/10 to win the race, while Ladbrokes have her at 1/3.
Betvictor, meanwhile, have her at 4/9.
Meanwhile, Heather Humphreys is seen as more of an outside bet, as Bet365 have her at 12/5 and Ladbrokes have her at 9/4.
Betvictor have her at 6/4.

Fallout and Political Implications

Gavin’s withdrawal stemmed from scrutiny over his failure to return a tenant’s deposit in 2007, which he called an honest mistake and offered to rectify.
However, the controversy proved too damaging for a campaign built on integrity.
In a statement this week he said: “I made a mistake that was not in keeping with my character and the standards I set myself.”
“Taking all these considerations on board, I have decided to withdraw from the presidential election contest with immediate effect and return to the arms of my family.”

Irish electoral law prevents removing a candidate’s name from the ballot after the nomination deadline, meaning Gavin’s name will still appear on October 24.
Though he has stopped campaigning and urged supporters to vote their conscience, votes cast for him will still count as part of the election, potentially influencing the outcome through transfers or invalid ballots.

Gavin’s departure is a blow to Fianna Fáil, which hoped he would consolidate its centrist base, and it opens the door for a realignment of voter preferences.
Pre-withdrawal polls showed Connolly, the current Ceann Comhairle and a prominent left-wing figure, leading with 32% of the vote, followed by Humphreys at 23% and Gavin at 15%. Runoff projections had Connolly ahead of Humphreys, 53% to 47%, after Gavin’s elimination.

Connolly and Humphreys Battle for Momentum

Connolly’s momentum stems from her grassroots support and reputation as an independent, one who is unbeholden to coalition parties when it comes to political decisions.
Her campaign emphasizes Irish neutrality, women’s rights, and social justice — messages resonating with voters seeking change.
Humphreys, a former government minister and rural TD, projects stability and experience, appealing to Fine Gael’s base and potentially picking up Gavin’s centrist and conservative supporters.

Speaking after the withdrawal of Gavin, she said: “It’s difficult, and the circumstances are very difficult — and very difficult for the tenant who suffered.” She also wished Mr Gavin and his family “the best” and said it was very difficult for him.

But her role as bookies’ favourite comes before the full effect of Gavin’s 15% support in pre-withdrawal polls being redistributed. Political analyst Sinéad O’Rourke said: “Humphreys is likely to gain more from Gavin’s exit than Connolly, especially among Fianna Fáil voters.
But Connolly’s lead is rooted in her strong grassroots base and her image as a true independent.”

Connolly’s outsider status has been central to her campaign and she has been bolstered by endorsements from Sinn Féin, Labour, and the Social Democrats.
Humphreys, meanwhile, has adjusted her messaging to emphasize unity and stability, aiming to attract centre-left and disaffected Fianna Fáil voters.

Speaking after the withdrawal of Gavin, she said: “Jim Gavin has made an enormous contribution to our country. He served in the Defence Forces with distinction and the groundbreaking changes he pioneered in Gaelic Football are a legacy which will stand the test of time for all those who love our national games.”

Unlike the 2011 and 2018 elections, where Michael D. Higgins dominated polls and betting markets, this race lacks an incumbent and has been marked by unexpected turbulence. Gavin’s exit simplifies the field but amplifies the stakes of every remaining factor — voter turnout, preference transfers, and campaign momentum.
With just over two weeks until the vote, the betting markets are split, with some platforms favouring Connolly and others Humphreys. A decisive shift in odds could signal where public sentiment is trending. Ireland stands at a crossroads, potentially poised to elect its first female president from the Dáil’s independent ranks — unless Humphreys can rally the centre and claim victory.
The race, now a two-candidate showdown, is truly underway.